中文2000字
Subject Subject: Strategy - Survey of Stock
Investment Strategies
Last-Revised: 20 Jan 2000
Contributed-By: John Price (johnp at )
This article offers a brief survey of several strategies that investors use to guide their stock purchases and sales.
Before we start the survey, here's a golden rule of investing: Know why you are buying a particular stock –don’t wait until its price goes up or down to think about it. Many investors are not sure why they bought a stock in the first place, so when a dramatic fall in price happens, they're not sure what to do next.
Here's an example. Let's say you bought Intel. When you know why you bought Intel you will have a stronger basis for knowing what to do when its price goes up, or down, or even stays the same. So if Intel starts to go down in price and you bought it as a momentum play, then you will probably want to sell
as quickly as possible. But if you bought it as an undervalued stock, and if the fundamentals have not changed, then you might want to buy more."
Of course, every investor and every stock presents a different reason for contacting your broker. But we have to start somewhere, so here is my analysis of the six main investment styles.
Brother-in-law investor
Your brother-in-law phones, or perhaps your stockbroker or the investment writer for the regional newspaper. He has the scoop on a great stock but you will have to act quickly. If you are likely to buy in this situation, then you are a "brother-in-law investor." Brother-in-law investors rely on the advice of other people to make their decisions.
Technical investor
Moving averages, candlestick patterns, Gann charts and resistance levels are the sort of things the technical investor deals with. Technical investors were once called chartists because their central activity was making and studying charts of stock prices. Nowadays this is usually done on a computer where advanced mathematics combines with grunt power to unlock past patterns and correlations. The hope is that they will carry into the future.
Economist investor
This type of investor bases his decisions on forecasts of economic parameters. A typical statement is "The dollar will strengthen over the next six months, unemployment will
decrease, interest rates will climb -- a great time to get into bank stocks." Random walk investor This is the area of the academic investor and is part of what is called Modern Portfolio Theory. "I have no idea whether stock XYZ will go up or down, but it has a high beta. Si nce I don’t mind the risk, I buy it since I will, on the average, be compensated for this risk." At the core of this strategy is the Efficient Market Hypothesis EMH. There are a number of versions of it but they all end up at the same point: the current price of a stock is what you should buy, or sell, it for. This is the fair price and no amount of analysis will enable you to do any better, says the EMH. With the Efficient Market Hypothesis, stock prices are assumed to follow paths that can be described by tosses of a coin.
Scuttlebutt investor
This approach to investing was pioneered by Philip Fisher and consists of piecing together information on companies obtained informally through wide-ranging conversations, interviews, press-reports and, simply, gossip. In his book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Fisher wrote:
Go to five companies in an industry, ask each of them intelligent questions about the points of strength and weakness of the other four, and nine times out of ten a surprisingly detailed and accurate picture of all five will emerge.
Fisher also suggests that useful information can be obtained from vendors, customers, research scientists and executives of trade associations.
Value Investor
In the fourth edition of the investment classic _Security Analysis_, the authors Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, and Sydney Cottle speak of the "attempts to value a stock independently of its current market price". This independent value has many names such as `intrinsic value,?`investment value,?`reasonable value,?`fair value,?and `appraised value.?They go on to say:
A general definition of intrinsic value would be "that value which is justified by the facts, ., assets, earnings, dividends, [and] definite prospects, including the factor of management." The primary objective in using the adjective "intrinsic" is to emphasize the distinction between value and current market price, but not to invest this "value" with an aura of permanence.
Value investing is the name given to the method of deciding on individual investments on the basis of their intrinsic value as contrasted with their market price.
This, however, is not the standard definition. Most authors refer to value investing as the process of searching for stocks with attributes such as a low ratio of price to book value or a low price-earnings ratio. In contrast, stocks with high price to book value or a high
price-earnings ratio are called growth stocks. Investors searching for stocks from within this universe of stocks are called growth investors. These two approaches are usually seen to be in opposition.
Not so, declared Warren Buffett. In the 1992 Annual Report of Berkshire Hathaway he wrote, "the two approaches are joined at the hip: Growth is always a component in the calculation of value, constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive."
Conscious Investor
This type of investor overlaps the six types just mentioned. Increasingly investors are respecting their own beliefs and values when making investment decisions. For many, quarterly earnings are no longer
enough. For example, so many people are investing in socially responsible mutual funds that the total investment is now over one trillion dollars. Many others are following their own paths to clarify their investment values and act on them. The process of bringing as much honesty as possible into investment decisions we call conscious investing.
Most people invest for different reasons at different times. Also they don’t fall neatly into a single category. In 1969 Buffett described himself as 85 percent Benjamin Graham [Value] and 15 percent Fisher [Scuttlebutt].
Whatever approach, or approaches, you take, the most important thing is know why you bought a particular stock. If you bought a stock on the recommendation of your neighbor, be happy about it and recognize that this is why you bought it. Then you will be more likely to avoid the "investor imperative," namely the following behavior: If your stock rises, claim it as your ability; if it falls, pass on the blame.
Do all that you can to avoid going down this path. Write down why you bought a stock. Tell your spouse your reasons. Tape them on your bathroom mirror. Above all, if you want to be a successful investor, don’t kid yourself.
题目：策略—股票投资策略的调查
本文提供投资者使用引导他们的股票购买和销售的几个策略的简短调查。
在我们开始调查之前，这是一条投资的箴言：知道你为什么正买一支特别的股票- 不要直到它的价格上升或下降后才考虑它。很多投资者不能确信他们为什么首先买一支股票，因此当在价格方面的戏剧性的下降发生时，他们不能确信下一步做什么。
这是一个例子。假如你买Intel。如果你知道你为什么买Intel，当它的价格上升时，或者向下，或者甚至保持相同时你将很清楚地知道该怎么做。因此如果Intel价格开始下降时，你买进作为短期投资，然后你或许将想要尽快出售。但是如果基本规律没改变，你买它作为一份低估的股票，然后你可能想要买更多。
当然，每位投资者和每支股票为与你的经纪人联系提出一个不同的原因。但是我们从某处开始，因此下面是我的6个主要投资类型的分析。
夫或妻的兄弟型投资者
你的夫或妻的兄弟，或者你的股票经纪人或者地区报纸的投资作家打电话给你。他
在某一支很好的股票商赚了一大笔钱但是你必须迅速行动。在这种情况下如果你很可能买进，那么你是一个“夫或妻的兄弟型的投资者”。“夫或妻的兄弟型投资者”依赖其他人的建议决定。
技术型投资者
均线图，K线图案，甘氏图表和压力线是技术投资者进行技术分析时用的部分方法。技术投资者曾经被叫为图表师，因为他们的中心的活动是制作和研究股票价格的图表。现在这通常在一台计算机上进行，计算机中发展的数学揭开过去图案和相互关系。他们的希望是可以预测将来。
经济学家投资者
这类投资者把他的决定建立在经济参数的预测上。一个典型的陈述是" 美元将在未来的6 个月内走强，失业将减少，利率将攀登–这是进入银行板股票的大好时机"。“随机漫步理论的投资者”这是学术投资者的领域，并且是所谓的现代投资组合理论的一部分。"我不知道是否股票XYZ 将上升或下降，但是它有高的β。我从没介意那些风险，从我想买它的时候我就买了，平均起来，基本上这些风险都被补偿了"。在这个策略的核心是EMH(有效率的假定市场)。它有许多版本，但是他们全部在相同的点上结束：这个时价的股票你应该买进或者卖出。这是合理的价格，没有什么分析将使你能够做得更好，EMH 说。由于有效率的市场假说，股票价格被假设为沿着抛一枚硬币而形成的轨迹运动。
谣言投资者
Philip Fisher首先使用这种投资方法，这种方法由通过大范围的谈话、会面、报道、简讯、闲谈等非正
式的方式获得的公司的信息组成。Philip Fisher在他的《普通股和罕见的利润》这本书中写到：在一个行业里去5 家公司，分别问他们中的每个关于其他4家的优点和弱点的问题，十之八九令人吃惊地详细描述和准确的全部5家的图将出现。Philip Fisher也建议有用的信息可以从卖主，用户，贸易协会的研究科学家和主管那里获得。
估价投资者
在投资杰作_安全分析_的第4 版里，作者本杰明·格雷厄姆，大卫·陶德和悉尼科特尔谈到" 不管它的现行市价而尝试估价一支股票"。这种独立价值有很多名字例如‘实际价值’、‘投资额’、‘合理价值’、‘'公平价值’以及‘被估价的价值’。他们接着说：实际价值的一般定义是" 被事实证明有合理的价值（例如，资产，收入，股息），
和明确的前景（包括管理的因素）"。"固有"的主要目标是强调在价值和现行市价之间的区别，但不是投资这种有永久气息的“估价”。
价值投资是在价值与市场价值相比较的基础上而作出的投资决定的方法的名字。
然而这不是标准定义。大多数作者把价值投资作为寻具有账面价值低比率或者低的价格收入比率那样的属性的股票的过程。相反，对具有账面价值高或者高的价格收入比率的股票被叫做增长股。在这一范围内寻股票的投资者被叫为发展投资者。这两种方法通常被看做是相对的。
sort of中文翻译
而沃伦·巴菲特则宣布不是这样一来。在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的1992年度报告里，他写到，"两种方法被综合到一起使用：发展总是在价值的计算过程中的一个组成部分，形成一个变量，这个变量的重要能被忽视也可能很大，其影响可能是负也可能是正"。
有意识的投资者
这类投资者综合了以上几种类型。当做投资决定时，越来越投资者是考虑他们自己的信念和价值。对很多人来说，季度收入将不能满足他们。例如，那么多人对社会责任公共基金的投资的总投资额现在已经超过1万亿美元。很多其它人正沿着他们自己的道路验证他们的投资价值并且仿照他们。我们将把尽可能多的诚实带到投资决定的过程叫有意识的投资。
大多数人在不同的时代由于不同原因投资。此外他们不整齐坠入一个单个的种类。在1969年巴菲特称他自己为85%的本杰明·格雷厄姆[估价] 以及15%的渔夫[谣言].
无论接近，或者接近什么，你花费，最重要的事情是知道你为什么买这支特别的股票。如果你兹承你的邻居的推荐买一份股票，对它感到满意并且认识到这是你买它的原因。然后你将很可能回避" 投资者紧急"行为，即下列行为：如果你的股票上涨，把它作为你自己的能力；如果它下降，就责备你的邻居。
尽量避免沿着这条道路走。写下你为什么买这支股票。告诉你的配偶你的原因。在你的浴室镜上写下他们。最重要的是，如果你想要成为一位成功的投资者，不要开自己的玩笑。

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